28.04.2015 - Oil was not able to continue the growth
The price of gold has shown strong growth amid the weakening of the US dollar, which was caused by data on the service PMI in the US, which fell to 57.8, vs. expected 59.1. It is worth noting that investors fear a default by Greece. On May 12th country has to pay 780 million euros to the International Monetary Fund and in the absence of a consensus on the country's debt restructuring, Greece could default, which will be negatively displayed on the Eurozone’s financial system. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, but for significant growth is required correction on the stock markets, which will increase the demand for defensive assets.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil decreases due to the expected publication of statistics on oil and petroleum products inventories in the United States, which continue to grow despite the decline in oil production and the number of drilling rigs in the United States. An important factor is the statement of Saudi Arabia on oil policy, according to which the country will satisfy any demand. Investors will not rush to build up positions before the release of data on US GDP growth for the first quarter in the United States. Given the persistent excess oil on the market, as well as the slowdown in the Chinese economy, which is the world's second largest consumer of oil in the United States, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on oil.