28.04.2015 - The movement of the British pound will depend on the data on GDP growth
The price of euro fell against the background of fixing the positions of investors before tomorrow's publication of statistics on US GDP growth and the Fed’s statement on monetary policy in which may hint at the timing of interest rate increase, and this fact will support the US dollar. PMI service in the United States showed a decline to 57.8 in April, compared with an expected 59.1. Analysts continue to follow the negotiation process with Greece's creditors. Consensus on the country's debt restructuring will lead to an increase in the euro, but cannot change the medium-term downtrend. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the index house prices in 20 major US cities (13:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Taking into account the effect of the quantitative easing program in the Eurozone, we keep the medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
The price of the British pound continued to rise on expectations of strong GDP growth data which will be published today (08:30 GMT). Yesterday's statistics on the balance of production orders in the country, which rose to 1, compared with an expected increase to 4. We expect increased volatility and trading dynamics will depend on the rate of growth of the economy in the first quarter. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative due to the expectation of the fall of the euro and the weakening macroeconomic indicators.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous trading session due to the expectation of tomorrow's publication of the Fed on monetary policy and report on US GDP growth. It is worth noting that investors were disappointed by data on retail sales in Japan, which fell by 9.7% in March compared to the same period last year. This drop was the highest since 1998 and indicates the problem of the Japanese economy. Tomorrow in Japan is a day of. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen due to the weak macro statistics, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and the expectation of the Fed.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to grow despite the refusal of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia to comment on the parameters of monetary policy. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar supported bulls in the Australian dollar. The index of leading economic indicators for February showed an increase of 0.5%, against 0.4% in January. Also a positive factor was the increase in iron ore prices, which is a key export commodity. We forecast price growth in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued a gradual increased amid the weakening of the US currency and after the rise of the Australian dollar. It is worth noting that investors are in no hurry to accumulate positions before the publication of important statistics on the country's trade balance (22:45 UTC) and tomorrow statement of RBNZ on monetary policy. We expect the signals to determine the medium-term price movements and forecast strong growth volatility of today.