28.04.2016 - Statement by the Bank of Japan has led to a drop on the stock markets

Futures on US stock indexes are down today. Yesterday was published the Fed's statement on monetary policy which has been marked by an ambiguous situation in the US economy and concerns about the state of the global economy and financial system. Short-term interest rates remained unchanged at 0.25-0.50%. Corporate reporting season disappoints investors. Today, a strong influence on the trading will have the US GDP data (12:30 GMT). Negative impact on the course of trading today will also have the Bank of Japan's refusal from additional incentives. According to our estimates, the probability of the beginning of a substantial correction in the US market has grown considerably recently.

European stock indexes are falling on the background of the negative impact of the fall on the Japanese stock markets due to the passivity of the Bank of Japan. It should also be noted that the data on GDP growth in the UK was published yesterday, which rose by 0.4% in the first quarter, in line with expectations, but it was by 0.2% less than in the previous quarter. Investors continue to monitor commodities and quarterly reports of corporations. Tomorrow will be published news on retail sales in Germany and also France’s and Spain's GDP. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains positive, but the probability of correction in the coming weeks has increased.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally showed a negative trend. The main event was the announcement by the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Thus, the regulator has kept interest rates on deposits at the level of 0.1%, 0.0% on credits and the amount of the asset purchase program remains at 80 trillion yen per year. Investors forecasted a decline in credit interest rates. At the same time, the growth forecast for the country's economy this year has been lowered by 0.3% to 1.2%. Tomorrow in Japan is a day off. The recent increase in the volume of commodity futures trading in China is a risk to financial stability in the country and in the case of a sharp correction in the commodity markets, we can see a decrease in the stock markets of the region. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but we expect a drop on the markets in the coming weeks.

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