28.07.2015 - The dollar fell before the Fed statement

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday rose against the weakening US dollar against other major currencies before the publication of the Fed's statement on monetary policy in the United States. It is worth noting that analysts expect rising interest rates by the Fed this year and in case of monetary tightening in September, the US dollar strengthened, but in case of postponing this step until December we can see the growth of the euro. Yesterday, the support for the euro was also positive data on the index of business sentiment in Germany, which rose to 108.0 in July against the forecast of 107.6. The volume of orders for durable goods in June rose by 3.4%, which is 0.2 better than expected. Today, it is worth paying attention to data on the service PMI (13:45 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the beginning of the decline in the near future.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed growth against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar. Volatility on the stock market in China could lead to a later increase of interest rates in the US. It is worth noting that today will be published preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK in the second quarter (8:30 GMT). In case of growth by 0.7% or more, we will likely see continued growth in prices. The central event of the week will be tomorrow's statement of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy. We maintain a medium-term negative view on the British pound, and will see increased volatility today.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened yesterday amid growing demand for defensive assets, which was due to the fall of the Chinese stock market. At the same time, investors sold the dollar amid speculation of a later increase in interest rates of the Fed. Strong growth of volatility is expected tomorrow due to the Fed's statement on monetary policy and on Thursday after the release of statistics on the growth of US GDP. Our medium-term outlook for the Japanese currency remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar slightly strengthened against the weakening US dollar and the improvement of statistics on consumer confidence in the country. At the same time, the medium-term trend remains negative due to low commodity prices, which adversely affect the country's trade balance. Investors did not rush to accumulate new positions ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose due to the weakening US dollar. Despite this, the fundamental factors as the expectation of easing monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and low export prices continue to put pressure on quotations of the New Zealand currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the resumption of the fall in the near future.

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