28.07.2016 - The US dollar weakened after the Fed’s statement

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed an elevated level of volatility in connection with the publication of the Fed's statement on monetary policy. Thus, in the US central bank said about better assessments of the state of the economy, which makes it possible to raise interest rates this year, but on the other hand the Federal Reserve according to our estimates will not risk to raise interest rates before the US presidential election that will take place in autumn. Support for the euro yesterday was also the negative data from the US on the volume of orders for durable goods, which fell by 4.0% in June against the expected decline of 1.1%. Tomorrow will be released important reports for GDP growth in the euro area and the United States in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the euro, and today is worth paying attention to the data on the labor market in Germany (7:55 GMT) and the US (12:30 GMT).

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose yesterday against the weakening US dollar after the Fed's statement on monetary policy. In addition, the stimulus for growth yesterday has become the preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK in the second quarter by 0.6%, which is 0.2% more than in the first three months of this year. Today, it is worth paying attention to the index of house prices in the UK (06:00 GMT). We recall that the housing market is the key to assessing the state of the economy and is likely to suffer from the decisions on the country's exit from the EU. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a significant increase in volatility yesterday after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the stimulus package will be not less than 28 trillion yen, which weakened the national currency, but at the moment quotes are growing against the background of the weakening US dollar, as well as doubts about the announcement of stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. Tomorrow volatility will also be high due to publication the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy and release of reports on expenditure of households, inflation, retail sales and industrial production in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar decline after the Fed's statement on monetary policy at which have decided not to raise interest rates. Australian currency continues to be under the pressure of negative dynamics in commodity markets, which may continue in the near future. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data from Japan and the USA, as well as statistics on the index of producer prices in Australia. Our medium-term outlook is negative, despite a likely continuation of the correction in the near future.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued its correction due to a number of factors including the weakening of the US dollar, a technical rebound and investors fixing positions after a sharp decline previously. Tomorrow volatility will also be increased and the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, as well as important data from the US. The likelihood of lowering interest rates by the RBNZ and forecasted growth of the US dollar is the basis for the saving current negative medium-term outlook.

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