28.07.2016 - US markets continued consolidation

American stock indexes continued to consolidate, despite the large number of important information. Thus, the positive repot of Apple was neutralized by the fall of shares in the energy sector, which is associated with a decrease in oil prices. It should be noted, that the Fed improved assessment of the current state of the US economy, but did not raise interest rates and do did not mention on the timing of further monetary tightening. Investors were also disappointed with the data on the volume of orders for durable goods, which fell by 4.0% in June against the forecasted decline by 1.1%. Tomorrow will be published important data on consumer confidence, Chicago’s manufacturing PMI, and a preliminary report on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and we expect a strong movement on the American markets in the near future.

Major European stock indexes are now consolidated around the previous closing levels amid uncertainty over future growth prospects for the global stock markets. It is worth noting that the decline in commodity markets negatively displayed on the optimism of investors. In addition, the expectation of the negative consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU will curb buying. Today, positive news were on the reduction of the level of unemployment in Spain to 20.0% in Q1 against 21.0% in the previous period, while the number of unemployed in Germany fell by 7 thousand, against the forecast of decline by 3 thousand. Tomorrow volatility may rise after the release of statistics on the euro area GDP growth report and news from Japan. Our medium-term outlook for European indices remained pessimistic.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today mostly declined. Strengthening of the yen against the dollar and the continuing uncertainty on the US stock markets is holding back investors. Today in Japan, started a meeting of the Bank of Japan after which tomorrow will published a statement. In case of new stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan, we expect to see growth in the region's markets. In addition, the dynamics of the indices will affect the data on household spending, retail sales and industrial production in Japan. We expect increased volatility in the coming days and note the growth of probability of correction.

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