28.08.2014 - The dynamics of trading today will depend on the US GDP data
The price of euro started to correct upwards against statements of German Finance Minister Schaeuble regarding the fact that traders overestimated the statement of Mario Draghi in Jackson Hole. On the other hand on the market appeared information that indicates that the ECB will not take new measures at the next meeting if the inflation data will not come much worse than expected. Today, the central news will be the data on the labor market in Germany (12:30 GMT), United States (12:30 GMT) and the US GDP (12:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro, but admit the possibility of further correction in the coming days.
The price of the British pound continues to try to change the downward trend on the background of the completion of the dollar rally. Chance of upward correction rates increased significantly, but the price movement will depend on the statistics on retail sales (10:00 GMT), data on the labor market and the United States GDP (12:30 GMT). Full scale increase of the British currency may resume after the referendum on Scottish independence on 18 September. We maintain our positive medium-term outlook for the British pound.
The price of the Japanese yen could not continue the devaluation and continues to consolidate near the levels of the previous trading session. Growth momentum of the dollar has become weaker. In addition, investors are in no hurry to build-up positions before publication of data on GDP growth in the United States in the second quarter (12:30 GMT) and the release of a large block of statistics in Japan on the unemployment rate, the consumer price index, retail sales and industrial production. We expect a signal for opening positions, but maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar rose despite the negative data on new home sales in the country, which fell in July by 5.7%, compared with growth by 1.2% in June. The reason for the increase of quotations was the news about the growth of spending in the private sector, which grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, compared with an expected decline of 0.8%. Given the potential for correction of the American currency, we admit the possibility of continuation of price growth in the near future to the level of 0.9440, but our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The New Zealand dollar continued to rise following the Australian currency and to the weakening of the dollar. Negative data on the growth in the trade deficit of the country continues to put pressure on the national currency quotes. Investors are also monitoring the prices for dairy products, which is the main export commodity of the country. We expect the price growth in the near future, but its potential is limited.