28.09.2016 - Speech of Janet Yellen may increase the volatility
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the background of positive news from the US. So, investors welcomed the increase in the chances of Hillary Clinton becoming the president of the United States after the elections that will be held in early November. In addition, the dollar was supported by data on the growth in the US service PMI to 51.9 in September against the forecast of 51.1, and the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which rose to 104.1, compared with the expected 98.6. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics in the United States on the volume of orders for durable goods (12:30 GMT) and the dynamics of trading will affect the statements of head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen (14:00 GMT) and ECB President Mario Draghi (14:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but in the near future, prices may continue to consolidate around current levels.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed modest growth and as a whole continued to consolidate. Investors were disappointed with news on the balance of retail sales, which in September unexpectedly fell to -8, against expectations 8. Today will not be published important statistics and the main attention will be focused on external factors. Tomorrow a slight impact on the course of trading will have data on lending in the UK. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative due to the expectation of deteriorating macroeconomic indicators amid the UK’s exit from the EU.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate in anticipation of a new stimulus for the movement. Advisor of the Japanese government Koichi Hamada stated about the fears concerning the negative impact of further strengthening of the yen on demand for Japanese goods abroad and tourism. Tomorrow will be published an important report on retail sales in Japan, and on Friday will be published data on household spending, inflation and industrial production in the country. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative due to the promises of the authorities to deal with the further strengthening of the national currency of the country. In the near future we are likely to see a continuation of the negative dynamics of the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise gradually within the local rising trend and in the near future may continue this trend. Strong influence on the course of trading still have a situation on commodities markets, which remains unstable and the dynamics of the US dollar. According to our estimates, the upside potential is low, and after the recent increase, we expect a decrease in quotations within the correction. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar started to correct down after failing to renew the growth. In the near future the quotes will be consolidated, but the decline in the amplitude of price fluctuations indicates a strong future price movements. Negative for the New Zealand currency remains weak data on the trade balance, the uncertainty on the market of dairy products and the expected reduction in interest rates RBNZ for dealing with low inflation. Our medium-term outlook is negative.