28.10.2014 - Volatility on the market have declined
The price of euro rose slightly yesterday on a background of low volatility. The data that have been published yesterday disappointed both American and European investors. Thus, the index of business confidence in Germany fell to 103.2, against the forecast of 104.6, the service PMI in the US also fell to 57.3 that is 0.6, worse than expected figure and is the minimum in 6 months. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on durable goods orders (12:30 GMT), housing prices (13:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Today, activity of traders will be minimal due to the expectation of tomorrow's Fed statement on monetary policy in the US. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
The British pound continues to rise gradually amid weakening US dollar, as well as in connection with the publication of statistics on the balance of retail sales that has not changed in October and was 31, against the expected 29. Today in the UK is expected publication of important macroeconomic statistics, and investors will not rush to build up positions before tomorrow's Fed statement. In general, the British economy looks strong enough and the Bank of England may raise interest rates sooner than the Fed, which will likely lead to an increase in the British pound, but this event is only possible in the next year. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the British pound.
The Japanese yen continues to strengthen gradually due to the decrease of the US dollar. The Japanese currency was supported by data on retail sales growth of 2.3% in September against the expected 0.9%. Demand for the yen is also supported by the continuation of the pro-democracy protests Hong Kong, where the parties cannot reach a compromise with the government of China. Today, we probably will see continued consolidation of price near current levels due to the expectation of tomorrow's Fed statement. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen due to the difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
The price of the Australian dollar over the past weeks is consolidating in a narrow range around the level of 0.88. On the one hand currently there is no reason to resume the price growth despite a slight improvement in the industry in China, which is a major importer of Australian products. On the other hand, the decline in investment in the mining sector and the fall in the price of iron ore, which remains the main export commodity of the country by 40% continue to put pressure on the Australian dollar quotes. After a long consolidation we will see a strong price movement. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to correct upwards after a sharp decline, and the publication of data on the growth of the trade deficit, which most of all was contributed by the fall in the wood and dairy sectors. It is worth noting that in the current conditions of low prices for exports of New Zealand, the RBNZ intervenes to reduce the price of the New Zealand dollar, and in this regard we do not expect significant upside and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.