28.10.2015 - The statement the Fed will lead to increased volatility on the markets
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a negative trend despite the publication of weak statistics from the US, where the volume of durable goods orders in September decreased by 1.2% against the forecast of 1.1%. At the same time, the index of US consumer confidence from the Conference Board fell to 97.6 in October, against the forecast of 102.5. Today will be published the Fed's statement on monetary policy in the US (18:00 GMT). Chance of raising interest rates at this meeting, the Fed is minimal, but investors will be watching the rhetoric of the statements in the hope to estimate the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December. We expect a strong increase in volatility today, and despite the possible increase in prices of euro in the near future, expect the fall in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound dropped yesterday against the publication of weak statistics on GDP growth, which slowed to 0.5% growth in the 3rd quarter of this year, which is 0.2% less than the previous figure. Negative for the British economy was the decline in the construction sector due to the adverse weather conditions, and analysts predict a resumption of growth in this segment. In addition, investors were pleased with the growth in the services sector by 0.7%. Today, the main influence on the course of trading will have news from the US, where the Fed will release a statement on monetary policy. We expect the price decline of the British pound in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen has stabilized after recent gains caused by the weakening of the US dollar, as well as increased interest in defensive assets of investors. Today, we are likely to see increased volatility after the Fed's monetary policy (18:00 GMT). In addition, investors are waiting for the statements of the Bank of Japan on Friday, which may announce the launch of additional measures to stimulate the economy, which will be negatively displayed on the yen. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for a strong movement today.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar after a long consolidation showed a sharp decline due to lower commodity prices. The consumer price index in Australia rose by 0.5% in the third quarter against the forecast of 0.7%. Slowing inflation increases the likelihood of lower interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will lead to a drop in prices of the Australian currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar fell following the Australian currency against the background of weak statistics on inflation and the fall in commodity prices. Investors are waiting for today's statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy (20:00 GMT). In case of lower interest rates, we will see a sharp drop in prices. In addition, the decline may be caused by hints concerning monetary policy easing in the future. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency remains negative and we are waiting for the signal to sell.