28.11.2014 - Drop in oil prices was negatively displayed on the Australian dollar
The price of euro fell yesterday on expectations of the publication of data on inflation in the euro area. It is worth noting that the US had a day off yesterday in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving Day. Positive statistics on the labor market in Germany could lead to a continuation of the upward movement of euro prices. Thus, the number of unemployed decreased by 14 thousand which is 13 thousand better than expectations of experts. The unemployment rate remained near the level of 6.6%. Today is expected the increase of volatility in connection with the publication of data on consumer price inflation in the euro area, which is under the pressure of low oil prices and statistics on the unemployment rate in the euro area (09:00 GMT). We expect further price reduction and save medium-term negative expectations on the euro.
The price of the British pound could not continue to grow and offset an increase of the beginning of the week. It is worth noting that the British economy continues to show consistently high growth rates. Thus, previously was reported that the country's GDP in Q3 grew by 3.0% compared to the same period of the last year. The main problem for the British pound remained weak performance in the Eurozone. Today, it is worth paying attention to data on house prices index (07:00 GMT). We expect that in the near future quotes renewed short-term growth, but the medium-term trend remains negative.
The Japanese yen was not able to continue to strengthen against the background of correction of the US dollar, as well as in connection with a large block of macroeconomic statistics. Thus, industrial production grew by 0.2%, against an expected decline of 0.4%, retail sales rose by 1.4%, which is 0.1% worse than the forecast, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 3.5 % and household spending fell by 4.0%, which is 0.8% better than expected. Inflation declined by 0.1%. We see that the cost reduction continues to put pressure on the quotes of the yen despite the improvement in the industry. On Monday, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the manufacturing PMI. We look forward to continuing downward momentum and maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar declines amid falling oil prices. The reason for the decrease in quotations was the decision to keep OPEC oil production quotas at 30 million barrels a day. In addition, the national currency of Australia is under the pressure of decline in investment in the mining sector, lower iron ore prices and slowing growth of the Chinese economy to its lowest level in 5 years. On Monday, the course of trading will be influenced by the data on the manufacturing PMI in China and Australia. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline following the Australian currency. Negative was the fall in oil prices and the overall negative picture of the New Zealand dollar. Thus, the country's trade deficit totaled 908 million, compared with an expected 645 million and the previous figure 1.367 billion. Low prices for dairy products and commodities lead to a further decline in prices. We recommend holding short positions on the New Zealand currency and keep our medium-term negative outlook unchanged.