28.11.2014 - OPEC decision struck the indexes of oil exporting countries
Yesterday, trading in the US were not held in the connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving Day. It is worth noting that today activity of investors will also be minimal. Today is not expected the publication of important macroeconomic data, but the companies of the oil sector will fall in connection with yesterday's decision of OPEC, after the meeting in Vienna. Thus, the OPEC countries decided not to cut quotas for oil production and leave them at the level of 30 million barrels a day. On Monday, the course of trading may be influenced by the data on the manufacturing PMI for November. We expect continued growth until Christmas, after which we will revise our medium-term forecast.
Major European indexes yesterday showed mixed trends. Thus, a positive for German investors have become data from Germany, where the unemployment rate remained near the level of 6.6%, but the number of unemployed fell by 14 thousand, compared with an expected decline of 1000. It is worth noting that the number of unemployed in the country is 2.87 million. British market fell slightly amid falling oil stocks after the statement about the keeping OPEC oil production quotas. Today have been published data on the growth of retail sales in Germany by 1.9% in October, which is 0.2% better than expected. Today, special attention should be paid to the data on the unemployment rate and the consumer price index (10:00 GMT). For continued growth indexes will need a substantial stimulus and we expect of correction in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed an increase in volatility and different directions of the indexes. The reason for the active movement was the publication of a large block of macroeconomic data in Japan and the fall in oil prices, which supported the Chinese market, but also has led to falling of the Australian. So the unemployment rate in Japan fell by 0.1% to 3.5%, household spending in October declined by 4.0%, which is 0.8% better than analysts' expectations. Retail sales growth in Japan slowed to 1.4%, which is 0.1% less than the forecast. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the markets of the region, with the exception of the Japanese, but assume continued growth in the near future.