28.07.2014 - Markets expect the U.S. GDP data
The U.S. stock market ended the last trading session of the week with decline due to negative reports of Amazon and Visa, which disappointed analysts, as well as in connection with fixation of positions before the weekend. Data on increased orders for durable goods, which rose 0.7%, vs. forecasted 0.4% failed to change the negative trend. Today we should pay attention to statistics on services PMI (13:45 GMT). Volatility is likely to be low due to the fact that investors are waiting for the release of data on the labor market, GDP and the Fed's statement on monetary policy, which is scheduled for the second half of the week. We confirm our medium-term negative outlook for the U.S. stock market.
European stocks continued to fall on weak corporate reporting season in Europe, where more than 40% of reports were worse than analysts' forecasts compared to 28% in the USA. In addition, traders were disappointed by the data on reduction of the index of business confidence in Germany to 108.0, which is 1.6 worse than the forecast. At the moment, the attention of European investors is focused on the situation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, which may negatively affect the economy of the Eurozone. Downward movement in the medium term will continue according to our estimates and we recommend holding short positions on European indexes.
Markets of Asia-Pacific region preferably show a positive trend. The Chinese market is growing on the background of information on the greatest increase since September, profits of industrial enterprises of China which totaled 17.9% compared to the same period of the last year. These news also supported the Australian market, which has grown also due to increasing iron ore prices. The devaluation of the Japanese yen and the positive reports of Japanese corporations, helped to finish the trading session on Monday with growth of Japanese indexes. Markets are expected to decline in China and Australia and to rise in Japan in the medium term.