29.01.2016 - Interest rates Bank of Japan turned negative
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed growth against the background of weak statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, which in December fell by 5.1% against the expected decline of 0.5%. This fact weakened the position of the US dollar and has led to its decline. Today, a strong price movement was recorded in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar against the yen after the decision on additional measures to stimulate the economy. Today, the central event of the day will be the publication of the preliminary report on the growth of US GDP in Q4 (13:30 GMT). In addition, the course of trading may affect the data for GDP growth in France (06:30 GMT) and Spain (08:00 GMT), the consumer price index in the euro area in January (10:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we are waiting for a strong price movement today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate in anticipation of a strong stimulus that will lead to a sharp price movement in one direction or another. This event can become today's publication of preliminary data on US GDP growth in the 4th quarter (13:30 GMT). Yesterday was published statistics on GDP growth in the United Kingdom in the 4th quarter of last year by 0.5%, which is 0.1% better than the previous figure. For 2015 GDP growth of the UK totaled 2.2%. Driver for the increase was the service sector. After a long consolidation, we expect a strong price movement today and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today showed a strong movement that was associated with the decision of the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy and to reach the inflation rate of 2.0%, which is expected in the first half of 2017. As the result was confirmed multi-level system of negative interest rates. For lowering the interest rate to 0.1% gave 5 of 9 votes. The Bank estimates the country's GDP in 2015 fiscal year increased by 1.1%, which is 0.1% less than the previous estimate. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, and today we are forecasting strong price movements.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows the growth against the weakening US dollar in connection with deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in the country on the one hand, and rising oil prices on the other. The dynamics of commodity markets traditionally has a strong influence on investor sentiment with respect to the Australian dollar. On Monday, a strong influence on the dynamics of trading will have news on the manufacturing PMI of Australia and China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current growth may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the background of the Australian currency, to improve the situation on the commodity markets and the weakening US dollar. It is worth mentioning that earlier the RBNZ has not lowered interest rates but hinted at the possibility of such a step at the next meeting. At the same time, yesterday was published statistics on the trade balance of the country where the deficit totaled only 53 million in December, against 799 million in November. Today we expect increased volatility. We expect falling prices in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.