29.02.2016 - Improved statistics on US GDP has led to an increase of the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stabilized after the strong decline on Friday, which was caused by the publication of a preliminary report on US GDP growth which in the Q4 totaled 1.0%, against the forecast of 0.4% and a previous estimate of 0.7%. This fact has led to the strengthening of the US dollar. At the same time, it is worth noting that the personal income and consumer spending in the US in January rose more than forecast by 0.5% each. Today, the focus of investors will be on the data on the consumer price index in the euro area (10:00 GMT) and the Chicago manufacturing PMI (14:45 GMT). According to our estimates, the main theme of the next time will be the ECB meeting in March, at which may decide on additional measures to stimulate the Eurozone’s economy, which will lead to a fall of the euro. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the euro and forecast the fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to fall on Friday amid a stronger US dollar after publication of statistics on the growth of the US economy, which is in the 4th quarter according to preliminary data, totaled 1.0%. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending in the UK and the volume of new loans granted to individuals (09:30 GMT). The price of the British currency will continue to be under the pressure from the expected referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, which will be held in June. The current decline may continue in the near future, but we expect the resumption of growth of price before the referendum.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today showed growth against the background of falling oil prices, which continues to maintain an interest in defensive assets, as well as in connection with the correction after the decline on Friday, which was caused by the growth of the US dollar. Today, the course is also influenced by contradictory information from Japan on retail sales, which fell by 0.1% in January, against the expected growth of 0.2%, while at the same time, preliminary data on industrial production showed an increase by 3.7% in January, which is 0.5% better than expected. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, despite a possible strengthening in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a decline after rising in the previous weeks. The negative dynamics of prices was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar and falling oil prices. This week in Australia will be published a large number of important macroeconomic data, the most important of which will be the publication of GDP data on Wednesday and the trade balance of the country on Thursday. Volatility will be increased. A more likely scenario for the Australian dollar will be the continuation of negative dynamics in the short term. Our medium-term outlook is also negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows a negative dynamics due to the strengthening of the US dollar, falling prices for commodities, as well as the publication of the index of confidence in business circles of New Zealand, which in December fell to 7.1 against 23.0 in November. The dependence of the economy on the export of dairy products continues to rise in the near future, we see no reason to continue the growth. A more likely scenario will be a price decline. In the medium term, we also expect to see a drop.