29.02.2016 - The mood on the market remains pessimistic
The American stock market showed strong growth on Friday, despite the publication of positive statistics. Thus, the US GDP growth according to the second preliminary report was 1.0% in the 4th quarter, which is 0.6% better than the forecast and 0.3% more than the previous estimate. In addition, personal income and consumer spending rose by 0.5% in January, against forecasts of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Falling oil prices offset a significant portion of the positive. This week, the central event will be publication of report on the labor market on Friday. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on Chicago’s manufacturing PMI (14:45 GMT). Strong influence on the dynamics of trading will have oil prices. We forecast growth today, but the decline may continue in the coming months.
European stocks today shows a negative dynamics against the background of falling oil prices, the lack of result from the G-20 summit where discussed monetary policy of participating countries, but failed to reach a coordinated action. The decision of the People's Bank of China on reducing the reserve rate by 0.5% slightly improved market sentiment. It is worth noting that today was published preliminary data on consumer price index, which in the euro area fell to 0.2% vs. anticipated 0.0%, and the previous value of 0.3%. This fact reinforces the likelihood of a decision on the new stimulus from the ECB meeting on 10 March. In this regard, we expect growth in the European markets in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a fall today against the background of the lack of real results on the G-20 summit. In addition, the strengthening of the yen and falling oil prices worsened sentiment towards risky assets. Today have been published retail sales data in Japan, which fell by 0.1% in January, against the forecast of growth by 0.2%. Industrial production in Japan rose in January by 3.7%, which is 0.5% more than the forecast. Support for market shares in the region has a decline in the People's Bank of China's reserve requirements by 0.5% to 17.0%. We expect increased volatility in the near future and the resumption of growth after stabilizing the situation in the region.