29.02.2016 - The price of oil was not able to continue the growth and renewed decline

The price of gold has shown a downward movement on Friday against the publication of a stronger report on the US GDP growth in Q4, which totaled 1.0% vs. expected 0.4%. In January personal income and consumer spending rose by 0.5%, which was better than expected. In this connection, the dollar strengthened and increased the likelihood of earlier Fed raising interest rates. Summit of the G-20 did not give significant results and growth for protective assets remains stable due to the uncertainty of growth prospects on the stock markets and falling oil prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, despite the possibility of growth in the near future.

The price of futures for the Light Sweet crude oil has shown growth on Friday amid news of disruptions of oil supply in Nigeria and Iraq, but the price increase was short-lived, and the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as technical factors have led to the resumption of the negative dynamics. Despite the continued reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States, information on the reduction in US oil production by 600 thousand barrels per day by the end of 2016 is already priced in. We see no reason for continued growth and expect a further fall in prices in the near future amid rising oil supplies from Iran. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative with the targets near 25 dollars per barrel.

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