29.04.2015 - Markets are waiting for the US GDP data and the Fed
Currencies trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to grow on the background of weakening of the US dollar before the Fed statement on monetary policy (18:00 GMT). Analysts expect hints on the timing of rising interest rates of the Fed. At the same time, the index of US consumer confidence in April fell to 95.2 against the expected growth of 102.6. Today we expect a strong increase in volatility on the background of the publication of preliminary data on US GDP growth in the first quarter (12:30 GMT). The focus of investors is still on the Greek crisis, which can greatly affect the quotes of Euro in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the euro in relation to the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
Currencies trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued the upward movement on the weakening US dollar. Increasing the price of the euro supports the British pound. It is worth noting that yesterday was published preliminary data on GDP growth, which was 0.3%, compared with an expected expansion of 0.7%. In Q4 2014 the UK economy grew by 0.6%. It is worth noting that the preliminary data does not include all data and indexes of business activity in the country show growth in various sectors of the economy. In this regard, investors ignored weak data on GDP growth, but the price volatility greatly increased. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data from the US and the balance of retail sales in the UK (10:00 GMT).
Currencies trading and the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen continued to strengthen before the Fed statement. The weakening of the dollar has a positive effect on the Japanese currency. The increased demand for yen is possible if negotiations between Greece and creditors for restructuring the country's debt will fail. The yen is traditionally considered defensive asset. Today in Japan is the day off. We expect increased volatility of the price today and save a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
Currencies trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar shows steady growth against the background of rising in the price for the main export product of the country - iron ore. Rising gold and other metals also support investors' optimism. The weakening of the US dollar is one of the growth drivers of the Australian dollar. After reaching the psychologically important 0.80 level, we expect the price correction and expect a strong increase in volatility today in connection with the release of important news in the US. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
Currencies trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after reaching a local maximum started to decline despite positive data on the country's trade balance surplus in March, which totaled 631 million, against the forecast of 315 million. At the same time, the trade deficit for the year was 2.4 billion, the largest deficit since 2009. At the same time, the index of business confidence in New Zealand declined to 30.2 in February against 35.8 in January. We expect a decrease in quotations of the New Zealand dollar in the near future.