29.04.2016 - Weak data on US GDP has led to a fall of the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro shows growth after yesterday was published weak data on US GDP growth, which totaled only 0.5% in the first quarter of this year against the forecast of 0.7%. Most sectors of the economy with the exception of the housing market showed weaker results. Today will be published a large number of important macroeconomic data, which will also lead to increased volatility. So, we should pay attention to the statistics of the GDP of France (5:30 GMT), Spain (07:00 GMT), the unemployment rate and consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), personal income and consumer spending in the US (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Euro growth may continue in the near future on the back of weak US data and the decline in interest in risky assets, which is negative for the dollar, our medium-term outlook is pessimistic and we can see the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound after the recent correction continued to rise on the weakening of the US dollar and the improving expectations about the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Consumer confidence in the UK in April fell to -3, which is 2 worse than expectations of investors. Consumer сoncerns are related to the country's possible exit from the European Union, immigration and terrorism. On Monday, in the UK is the day off. We forecast a drop in prices of the pound in the coming months amid speculation before the referendum that will take place on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to rise yesterday after the Bank of Japan decided not to strengthen incentives to achieve the inflation target. Analysts predicted the introduction of negative interest rates on loans. Moreover, the weakening of the US dollar is an additional factor for the strengthening of the yen. In the coming weeks, the yen's rise may also worsen in case of reduction on commodity and stock markets, which will increase the demand for defensive assets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, but the current dynamics is likely to continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has continued upward movement after the recent sharp decline, which was caused by weak data on inflation in the country, increasing the likelihood of the RBA easing of monetary policy. It is worth noting the positive impact of commodity prices on the dynamics of the Australian currency, but in case of correction on commodity markets, the situation may change. In the near future the price growth can continue, but our medium-term negative outlook remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise against the background of weakening of the US currency, as well as the decision to retain the RBNZ monetary policy settings unchanged. The potential for further price growth is limited and in case of correction on commodity markets, we may see a drop in prices, in spite of the improvement in macroeconomic indicators in the country.