29.05.2015 - Traders are waiting for statistics on US GDP growth
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected upwards against fixing the position of investors before the publication of important statistics on the growth of US GDP in the first quarter (12:30 GMT), which will lead to a strong increase in volatility. The increase of euro is also due to the deterioration of statistics on the number of initial unemployment claims, which rose to 282 thousand, compared with an expected 271 thousand. Today is also worth paying attention to data on the manufacturing PMI of Chicago (13:45 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect strong growth of volatility today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline despite the weakening of the US currency. The reason for the decline was the data on GDP growth in the UK, which according to the second preliminary forecast increased by 0.3% in the first quarter against the expected increase of 0.4%. Statistics on the growth in the number of permits for mortgage lending, which grew to 42.1 thousand in April, against the forecast of 39.2, could not change the course of trading. Today, the price movement will depend on the data from the US. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the British pound.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen stabilized after a minor upward correction. Earlier quotes yen plummeted due to rising dollar and the loose monetary policy in the country. Today have been published data on the index of consumer confidence which rose to 0.3% in April against the expected growth of 0.2%, the volume of industrial production increased by 1.0%, which is 0.1% better than expected. Statistics for US GDP growth in Q1 will strongly influence the course of trading today. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a slight correction within the sustainable downtrend. Sales of new homes in the country increased by 0.6% in April against 4.4% in March. It is worth noting that the main factors that continue to put pressure on the Australian currency are risks associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the fall in prices of iron ore and other commodities. On Monday will be published important statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector in China, which will increase volatility. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar reached the target level of 0.72 and continued downward movement in connection with the publication of statistics on the index of confidence in the business community of the country, which in May fell to 15.7%, against 30.2% in April. Waiting for possible lowering interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the low prices for dairy products continue to put pressure on the national currency quotes. The fall is likely to continue in the near future, but there is a possibility of correction after reaching the critical level of 0.70.