29.06.2015 - ​Tomorrow, Greece may default

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a gap at the beginning of the trading week against the backdrop of the failure of negotiations of Greece with creditors. Thus, the Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras announced a referendum on the austerity measures needed to restructure debts and urged the population to vote against them. On the other hand, the IMF said that the country still has to pay about 1,6 billion euros on June 30 or declare a default. Today, in the focus of investors will be the statement by politicians about the situation in Greece, which will lead to volatility on the market. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to consolidate near the previous close, despite a sharp fall in the price of euro, which negatively affects the dynamics of the British currency. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending and the volume of loans granted to individuals. The expected strengthening of the US dollar in relation to the forecast of the Fed raising interest rates, and the decline of the euro that will have a negative impact on the quotes British currency in the medium term.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the backdrop of growing demand for protective assets, due to the failure of negotiations on reforms in Greece, that tomorrow may lead to a default of the country and its further exit from the Eurozone, which will be negatively displayed on the financial system of the European Union and in the world. Support for the yen was also the data on retail sales in Japan, which grew by 3.0% in May, which is 0.8% better than analysts' expectations, but the important statistics on industrial production in Japan, which fell by 2.2% in May, which is 1.4% worse than expected, stopped the rise in the price of the yen. In case of a default by Greece, the interest in the yen will continue to grow. Despite this, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen in the medium term.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar reached the target level of 0.76, but was not able to continue to grow. The reason for the drop was the strengthening of the US dollar. Currently quotes are adjusted due to technical factors. Negative for the Australian currency remains lower commodity prices. Given the expectation of monetary tightening in the US and the negative impact of the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the fall in prices of iron ore and other commodities, we keep negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong increase in volatility today, but will continue to consolidate near the previous close. It is worth noting that the quotes of the New Zealand currency declined in recent weeks against the backdrop of easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which may continue in the near future. Low prices for dairy products also put pressure on the national currency of the country. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

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