29.06.2016 - US GDP data supported the dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro could not continue to grow, despite the upward momentum caused by the correction after a strong reduction of quotations at the end of last week. It should be noted that the negative impact of the euro had a strengthening of the US dollar after was published final data on US GDP growth in the 1st quarter of this year, according to which the world's largest economy grew by 1.1%, vs. expected 1.0%. In addition, in June, the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board rose unexpectedly to 98.0 vs. predicted 93.2. Today, it is worth paying attention to data on personal income and consumer spending in the US (12:30 GMT) and the results of stress tests of major banks in the US (20:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro is negative and we expect a drop in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound may continue to fall after the recent correction, which was caused by the fixation position after a strong drop caused by the results of the referendum on EU membership. In the near future volatility will remain high due to speculation about the possible blocking of exit from the EU by Scotland, the possible holding of a second referendum, and so on. Macro data at the moment has a minimal impact on the course of trading. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of the British currency prices in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen corrected upwards against the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of stronger statistics on US GDP growth in Q1. In addition, a correction has been associated with the fixation position after the strong growth of the yen against the background of the increased interest in defensive assets after the referendum in the UK. Today was published data on retail sales in Japan, which in May fell by 1.9% compared to the same period last year, which is 0.3% worse than forecast. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial production in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the background of improving the situation on the commodity markets, which has a key influence on the economy of Australia. It should be noted that the negative for the Australian currency was the news about reducing the number of new home sales by 4.4% in May compared with a fall of 4.7% in April. We recall that the construction sector is a key to the country's economy. The trading dynamics today will affect the US dollar and commodity prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose today in connection with the correction and reduction of investors' fears about the impact of the UK’s exit from the EU. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand in April. According to our estimates, the price decline of the New Zealand dollar is likely to continue in the medium term.