29.07.2016 - The yen rose after the statement of the Bank of Japan

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline after strong growth caused by the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged and the absence of hints on the timing of further steps to tighten monetary policy in the country. It is worth noting the growth of the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 266 million against 252 million previously. Positive for the euro have also become the data on reduced unemployment in Spain to 20.0% in the last quarter, which is 1.0% less than in the first three months of this year. Today, volatility will be high in relation to the publication of reports on unemployment in the euro area and the GDP growth of euro area (09:00 GMT) and the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate in anticipation of the new signal with respect to the process the UK’s exit from the EU. According to our estimates, the main impact on the dynamics of trading today will have data from the Eurozone and the US, but at the same time we should pay attention to the statistics on lending in the country (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expectation of further negative impact of the UK’s release from the EU.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today showed strong movement and as a result continued the rise against the US dollar. The highlight of the day was the statement of the Bank of Japan according to which the interest rate remained at 0.1%, but the volume of dollar lending program increased to 24 billion against 12 billion previously. The forecast for GDP growth this year has been lowered to 1.0%, which is 0.2% less than the previous estimate. It is worth noting that retail sales fell by 1.4% compared with the same period last year, while core consumer price index fell in June to -0.5% vs. expected -0.4%. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, despite the possibility of short-term growth in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is consolidating after was unable to continue its upward movement. Growth today was constrained by the data on producer price index, which in the second quarter totaled 0.1% vs. anticipated 0.2%. On Monday, the dynamics will depend on the news on new home sales in Australia and the manufacturing PMI in China and Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the pressure of situation on commodity markets continue to pull the price down.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to consolidate. On the trading dynamics influenced the weak data on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, which fell to 16.0 vs. 20.2 previously. Next week will be published important statistics on unemployment in the country. Today, volatility will be elevated against the publication of important statistics in the United States. Given the likelihood of easing monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the expected strengthening of the US dollar, we expect a drop in prices in the medium term.

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