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29.08.2014 - US GDP data has strengthened the dollar

The price of euro yesterday resumed fall due to a number of factors. Thus, the number of unemployed in Germany unexpectedly rose by 2 thousand, compared with a forecast of decline by 6 thousand, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell to 298 thousand, and the United States GDP growth in the second quarter was 4.2%, which is 0,3% better than analysts' expectations. Growing tension on situation in Ukraine has also led to decline of the euro. Today, the dynamics of trading remains volatile against the publication of statistics on the consumer price index and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). In addition in the United States will be released the data on personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence (13:55 GMT). We look forward to continuing downward price movement of euro in the medium term with the target near 1.28.

The price of the British pound rose yesterday due to positive data on retail sales of the country, which rose to 37, compared with an expected 27. In the next month is expected the growth of rate to 42. Companies forecast that growth in the next 3 months will also be high and will reach record levels since May 2002. The course of trading today will be affected by news on the prices for homes in the UK (06:00 GMT), statistics from the United States and news on the situation in Ukraine. We expect the beginning of the price correction in the near future and maintain a medium-term positive outlook for the pound.

The fall of the yen has stopped despite the publication of strong US GDP data, which grew in the second quarter by 4.2%, which is 0.3% better than expected. The reason that kept from falling was the aggravation of the situation in Ukraine, which has increased the demand for defensive assets. Most of the macro data published today in Japan disappointed investors. So, household spending fell by 5.9%, unemployment rose by 0.1% to 3.8%, inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% and industrial production grew by only 0.2%, which is 1,0% worse than analysts' expectations. Only retail sales exceeded expectations and rose by 0.5% compared with an expected decline of 0.1%. Demand for the yen may continue to rise due to the deteriorating situation in the east of Ukraine, but in spite of this, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

The price of the Australian dollar slid back against the strengthening of the dollar after strong labor market data and GDP growth. The dynamics of the national currency of Australia continues to depend on commodity prices in the world and the situation in the industry in China. On Monday will be published data on the manufacturing PMI of Australia, China and the United States, which may affect the course of trading. We expect the price growth in the near future, but keep medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The New Zealand dollar was unable to continue the upward movement and began to correct against the strengthening dollar. Negative for investors also was the news of the fall of the index of business confidence in New Zealand in July to 24.4, against 39.7 in June. Price of the currency remains under the pressure of declarations by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on overvaluation of the national currency, as well as the worsening the trade balance of the country. We expect that in the near future the quotes will continue to consolidate near levels of 0,83-0,85.

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