29.08.2016 - The dollar rose after the speech by Janet Yellen

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed increased volatility on Friday, and as a result fell heavily against the US dollar after speech of the Fed’s chief at a symposium in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen pointed to a strong labor market data and rising inflation, which gives grounds for tightening of the monetary policy in the future. Deputy head of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer noted that the rhetoric Mrs. Yellen points to the possibility of the two interest rate hikes this year. The probability of raising interest rates at a meeting of the Federal Reserve in September, is about 33%. The central event of this week will be the publication of the US labor market report for August, which will greatly affect the expectations of the inverters on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Today, the euro may continue to fall and the course of trading will affect the news on personal income and consumer spending in the US (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed decline amid stronger US dollar after the speech of the Fed, which has led to increased confidence in raising interest rates this year. On Friday, was published a report by the UK's GDP growth in the second quarter, which totaled 0.6%, as expected. Today, in the UK is the day off and the dynamics of trading in the near future will affect the movement of the US dollar, as well as the negative consequences of the future country's exit from the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decrease in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen shows the decline against the US dollar, on the background of the probability of the Fed tightening monetary policy, which would increase the divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. It is worth noting that the current momentum may strengthen against the background of fixing positions after a prolonged decline and price consolidation. Tomorrow will be released important statistics on households spending and the labor market in the country. We expect a continuation of negative dynamics in the near future and medium term.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar accelerated decline within the downward trend in the near future is likely to be highly dependent on the dynamics of the US dollar. It is worth noting that in the course of trading was also affected by weak data on new home sales in Australia, which fell by 9.7% in July against the growth of 8.2% in June. This week, in addition to data from the United States we should pay attention to the statistics on China’s manufacturing PMI, and retail sales in Australia, which will be published on Thursday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar also showed a sharp decline amid the growth of the US currency. In case of continued negative dynamics, we can see the changing of the current trend to negative. On Wednesday will be published data on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, but the focus will be on the news from the USA. Given the likely weakening of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy and the strengthening of the US dollar, we remain a medium-term negative outlook and expect the decrease in the near future.

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