29.09.2016 - The decision of OPEC supported the Australian dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate against the US dollar amid the publication of statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, which showed zero growth against the expected decline of 1.0%. In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi said about the positive impact of stimulus measures on the economy of the Eurozone, which according to him made it possible to avoid a new "Great Depression." At the same time, the Fed chief noted a positive trend in the labor market and announced the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of the year, which will be negatively displayed on the euro. Today, it is worth paying attention to the final report on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter and data on the trade balance in the US (12:30 GMT). Investors will also continue to follow the rhetoric of the Fed, which has become more hawkish. According to our estimates, potential growth in the euro is limited and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose slightly against the US dollar, on the background of the lack of publication of important statistics in the UK. Today will be published data on the credit market of the country (08:30 GMT), that will have little impact on the course of trading. Investors will not rush to open new positions ahead of tomorrow’s publication of reports on GDP growth in the second quarter, the balance of payments and business investment. We expect the fall of the British currency in the medium term, but in the near future may see a correction in prices.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a decline against the US dollar after the publication of weak statistics on retail sales in the country, which decreased in August by 2.1% compared with the same period last year, which is 0.4% worse than the forecast. In addition, the demand for defensive assets fell due to a sharp rise in oil prices. Tomorrow volatility may rise after the release of reports on household spending, inflation, industrial production and unemployment. Today, in the focus will be news from the US. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and growth potential in case of a resumption of the negative dynamics will be low.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the backdrop of rising commodities prices, which was due to a sharp rise in oil quotations after OPEC announced an agreement to reduce the volume of oil production to levels 32,5-33,0 million barrels per day. Details of the decision will be discussed at a formal meeting of OPEC in November. At the moment, the volume of production in OPEC is 33.24 million barrels per day. Tomorrow on the Australian dollar will affect news on new home sales in Australia. According to our estimates, the growth potential is limited, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has little changed and continued consolidation. Given the reduction of the current amplitude of the oscillations, we expect a strong price movement in the near future. Tomorrow, will be published the data on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, which may adversely affect the dynamics of the local currency. The movement of prices in the near future will depend on external factors such as the dynamics of the US dollar and the Australian dollar, and prices for dairy products. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar in connection with monetary policy easing expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand before the end of the year and its tightening in the United States.