29.12.2014 - Markets monitor the elections in Greece
The price of euro after reaching its lowest level since August 2012, started to correct upward. At the moment, in the focus of investors are the results of voting in Greece, where the Parliament elects the President of the country. In case of refusal to support the candidacy presented by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, the country will face new parliamentary elections in January or February, a few weeks before the end of the credit program of 240 billion euros. Today, activity of traders will be minimal due to the Christmas holidays. Growth of volumes should be expected next week. We predict that the price will remain near current levels and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the British pound continued to correct upwards after the celebration of Christmas. At the moment, trading volumes remain minimal due to the continuation of the holidays. Today will be published index of house prices in the UK (07:00 GMT). Given the lack of important macroeconomic data this week and the holiday season, we predict that the price will remain around current levels. Continued fall is unlikely, and we recommend to wait for the signals to open new positions.
The price of yen after stabilized and continues to consolidate within a narrow corridor. The absence of the majority of investors on the market leveled the fact of release a large block of macroeconomic data for the Japanese economy. Investors expect strengthening measures to fight low inflation in the preservation of current oil prices on the market and weak domestic demand. It should be noted that the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a package of 3.5 trillion yen to stimulate the economy. Third of the funds will go to support consumers and small and medium-sized businesses. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar remains near lows against the background of the lack of investor activity. Important statistics on the Australian economy this week will not be published and given the holidays, the price is likely to remain around current levels. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar showed growth amid strengthening prices of agricultural products due to the flood in Malaysia, which can bring significant damage to the production of palm oil and other agricultural products. Despite this, the price continues to trade around current levels and we expect the resumption of the downward movement after the holidays.