29.01.2014- Fed meeting today will be in the spotlight
Tuesday's trading session ended with the growth of major European and U.S. indexes. Necessity of correction after the fall during previous days and positive macro data, contributed to the raise of benchmarks. Thus, the consumer confidence index in January increased to 80.7, while the forecast was 78.3. At the same time, durable goods orders dropped in December by 4.3%, although the expected growth was 1.3%. In addition, the U.S. stock market was supported by the positive figures of corporate reports.
Today, the central news for all markets will be the decision of FOMC on the future of the quantitative easing program (19:00 GMT). According to the results of the last meeting, the monthly volume of asset purchases by the Fed has been reduced from 85 to 75 billion dollars. We expect that a similar decision will be taken today, and the amount of asset purchases will decrease by 10 billion.
The data on consumer confidence in Germany (07:00 GMT) is also worth paying attention, during today’s session.
The British pound continues to consolidate below the strong level of 1.66. GDP growth in Q4 decreased to 0.7% as it was expected. In the previous quarter the economic growth was 0.8%. The course of trading today may be influenced by the speech of the head of the Bank of England - Mark Carney (12:15 GMT).
The price of USD/JPY continues to recover its positions. On Friday will be released a large block macro data that will help to determine the future direction of Japanese yen. We maintain a long-term positive outlook for the price of USD/JPY, due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil is traded near the level $ 97 per barrel. Traders are awaiting the results of the Fed meeting, as well as the release of data on oil and petroleum products inventories in the U.S. (15:30 GMT). It is predicted that oil inventories will grow by 2.2 million barrels. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil prices, despite the increased of demand caused by the cold winter in the United States.
Gold continues a gradual decline within the local rising channel. Recovery of stock indexes does not contribute to the rise in demand for the metal. Traders are not in a hurry to build up positions before the Fed decision on the quantitative easing program, but afterwards, we expect a strong growth of market volatility.