29.05.2014 - Traders are waiting for data on U.S. GDP
of euro continued its decline on the backdrop of negative data on the labor
market in Germany. Thus, the number of unemployed in May rose by 24 thousand
compared with an expected decline of 14 thousand. This factor is explained by
earlier demand for seasonal workers in connection with the early spring. It
should be noted that the unemployment rate remained at its lowest level for 20
years - 6.7%, against 11.9% in the euro area. Also yesterday, was released the
data on the monetary base in the euro area, which has grown by 0.8% against the
forecast of 1.2% growth. Today in Germany and France is a banking holiday. The
course of trading may be influenced by the data on the labor market, U.S. GDP
growth (12:30 GMT), and pending sales on the real estate market in the U.S.
(14:00 GMT). We expect a further decline of the euro and save the medium and
long term neg
The British pound fell sharply on the background of a number of factors one of which was the refusal of the American corporation Pfizer from buying the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca for $ 120 billion In addition, the negative impact on the dynamics of the pair had retail sales index which fell to 16 in May that is lower than 30 in April and 36 forecasted. Today we expect the upward price correction and maintain a long-term positive outlook.
The Japanese yen continued to strengthen despite weak retail sales data, which showed a decline in April of 4.4% per annum, compared with an expected drop of 3.2%. Traders are cautious before the release of a large block of macro statistics. Thus, tonight (23:30 GMT) will be published data on household expenditures, unemployment, consumer price index and industrial production in Japan. Special attention will be paid to inflation. We expect resumption of, the downward movement due to the policy of the Bank of Japan, aimed at increasing the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen per year and achieving the inflation target of 2.0%. We maintain our medium-and long-term positive outlook for the pair.
The price of the Australian dollar fell yesterday against decrease in number of approved projects on the extraction of natural resources by more than 30% to 48. The reason for the strong growth today was the data on new home sales in the country, which in April rose by 2.9%, versus the growth by 0 2% in March. Increased volatility in the Australian dollar is expected next week, after the release of data on the index of business activity in China's manufacturing sector. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline due to weak data on the index of business confidence in the country in April to 53.5, against 64.8 in March. In addition, it is worth noting that traders do not accumulate long positions after the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand about the readiness to fight against the high exchange rate when prices for export commodities are low. We expect further decline of prices in the medium term.