30.01.2015 - Publication of data on US GDP growth will lead to higher volatility
The price of euro yesterday had not changed. Investors were in no hurry to build up positions before the publication of important macroeconomic data in the Eurozone and the US and ignored the data on reduction of the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 265 thousand, which was the minimum level since April 2000. Analysts had expected that the figure will be 301 thousand. In addition, it should be noted a decrease in the number of unemployed in Germany to 9 thousand, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the retail sales in Germany (07:00 GMT), Spain's GDP (08:00 GMT), the consumer price index and the unemployment in the euro area (10:00 GMT). In the United States will be published important statistics on preliminary data on GDP growth in Q4 (13:30 GMT) and the consumer confidence index (15:00 GMT). Today we expect a strong increase in price volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound yesterday corrected after the publication of strong data on the US labor market. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since April 2000 - 265 thousand, and the number of people who continue to receive unemployment benefits fell by 71 thousand to 2.4 million. The balance of retail sales in the UK was 39 against the expected 31. Today, the course of trading will be influenced by the increased volatility of the US dollar and the euro in connection with the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the Japanese yen fell against the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of strong data on the labor market in America. At the same time, statistics from Japan was controversial. Thus, the number of unemployed decreased by 0.1% to 3.4%, household spending fell by 3.4%, which is 1.1% worse than the forecast, and the volume of industrial production rose by 1.0%, which is 0.3 % worse than the forecast. Volatility today will continue to grow after the publication of statistics on GDP growth in the United States. Soft monetary policy together with weak macroeconomic indicators and the strengthening of the US dollar continue to put pressure on the quotes of yen. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but note the possibility of its strengthening in the near future in case of increased demand for defensive assets.
The price of the Australian dollar is corrected after a strong reduction yesterday. Investors fear lower interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia. We also should note the strong fall in the price of gold, which had a negative impact on the quotes of the Australian currency. Quotes of copper and iron ore are still at low levels. We see no reason to change the negative dynamics of the Australian dollar. Increase in volatility is expected on Monday after the publication of data on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. Today, the dynamics will depend on the movement of the US dollar. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline following a statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. We recall that the bank declared readiness to change interest rates depending on economic indicators. Trade data continue to show improvement in the deficit, but this figure continues to put pressure on the quotes of the national currency. Moreover, trade is dependent on commodity prices and agricultural products, which remains at low levels. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.