30.01.2015 - Traders are waiting for the data on the growth of the American economy in the 4th quarter
The US stock market yesterday showed growth against the background of strong labor market statistics where the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 265 thousand, which is the lowest level since 2000. At the same time, analysts are waiting for today's publication of statistics on US GDP growth. In case of growth of more than expected 3.0%, we can see a continuation of an upward trend. At the same time, the risks of a Greek default, associated with the new government of the country, continue to restrain investors from buying. The focus of the market remains the corporate reporting season, which shows mixed results. We are waiting for the signals to determine the future direction of the market and forecast strong growth of volatility today.
European stock indexes ended the trading session yesterday with a slight change. On the one hand markets were supported by the statement the US Federal Reserve with an optimistic forecast of US economic growth, but on the other hand, the markets fear problems with the restructuring of Greek debt. Retail sales rose by only 0.2%, which is 2 times worse than the forecast, preliminary data on the GDP of Spain showed growth rate of 0.7% in the 4th quarter, which is 0.2% better than analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate in the euro area fell by 0.1% to 11.4%, while deflation increased to 0.6%, which is 0.1% worse than expected. We forecast increase on the European stock markets in connection with the program of quantitative easing, but note the negative impact of the Greek crisis on investor sentiment.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed different directions. The Japanese market is supported by positive external background from the United States where there was recorded a significant improvement. At the same time, the Japanese yen fell and supported share prices of exporters. The Australian market also reacted positively to the drop in the national currency of Australia. The leaders of growth were shares of commodity companies and the financial sector. Chinese investors continue to sell shares of local companies. Market fears a slowdown in the Chinese economy and the problems in the construction sector of the country. Our medium-term outlook is more positive than before, but we noted the negative impact of the recession in Japan and falling the growth rate in China.