30.01.2015 - We expect increased volatility on the commodity markets after the release of US GDP data
The price of gold has shown a sharp decline after the publication of strong data on the US labor market, where the number of initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since April 2000 - 265 thousand. At the same time, the number of people who continue to receive unemployment benefits fell by 71 thousand. Improvement in the US labor market increases the probability of rising interest rates of the Fed in June and the US dollar strengthens. It is worth noting that the demand for gold in recent years is supported by investors' concerns about the prospects for growth on the stock markets, the Greek debt crisis and the tense situation in Ukraine. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but expect further price decline in the near future.
The price of US benchmark Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate around 45.00 the level of and cannot be fixed below this mark, which indicates the weakness of the bears. Factor that supported the quotes of black gold has been a significant improvement in the US labor market. At the same time, investors do not want to build up positions before the publication of statistics on US GDP growth (13:30 GMT). In case of a positive report on GDP growth than expected 3.0% growth, the oil price can show increase up to 50 dollars per barrel. Despite the possibility of short-term growth, excess oil on the market will continue to put pressure on the price. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and expect increased volatility in prices today.