30.03.2015 - Volatility on the markets decreased
The price of euro strengthened slightly on Friday amid data on the US GDP growth, which was 2.2% in the 4th quarter of last year against the expected increase of 2.4%. In her speech, Janet Yellen did not hint at the timing of rising interest rates of the Fed. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on consumer price inflation in Spain (07:00 GMT) and personal spending and income of consumers in the US (12:30 GMT). The focus will continue to be on negotiations of Greece with creditors. Due to the program of quantitative easing in the euro area, we keep the medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the euro.
The price of the British pound showed moderate growth in the last trading day of the week in connection with the statement of the Bank of England according to which the next step the Bank of England will be raise of interest rates. Despite this, today we see the resumption of the downward movement of the British currency. The euro and the weakening of growth in the UK will continue to put pressure on the stock of the national currency of the country. Today the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on permits for mortgage lending and lending to individuals (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term view remains negative and in the near future the price is likely to fall to 1.47.
The price of the Japanese yen remained virtually unchanged despite the publication of data on the decline in industrial production in Japan in February by 3.4%, against an expected fall of 1.8% and growth of 3.7% in January. Investors expect new signals from the Fed on the future monetary policy of the country. The demand for defensive assets remains high due to the lack of progress in the negotiations in Greece and creditors, as well as military operations in Yemen. Tomorrow we should pay attention to data on wages and new homes starts in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but in the near future, the yen may strengthen.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to fall against the background of weakening economic growth in China, which leads to a reduction in imports from Australia and adversely affects the value of commodities. At the same time, statistics from Australia shows a slowdown in the country. In the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to claim the positive influence of cheap Australian dollar. Tomorrow investor sentiment will be affected be the news on new home sales in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline gradually after the data on the trade balance of the country that have not shown significant improvement and did not meet the expectations of investors. The fall of the Australian currency also weighed on the stock of the New Zealand dollar. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on the index of confidence in the business community of the country in January. According to our forecasts, the decline will continue in the near future.