30.03.2016 - The fall of the dollar supported commodity markets
The price of gold yesterday showed growth against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar and a dovish rhetoric of Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. So, Mrs. Yellen during her speech stressed that the tightening of monetary policy in the country will be gradual and will depend on economic data, which have recently been contradictory. According to our estimates, a key indicator, which will influence the Fed's decision on raising interest rates, will be inflation and given the recent recovery in oil prices and a low comparison base, we expect the increase in the consumer price index this year, which will ultimately lead to a tightening of monetary policy and decline of gold. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative.
Light Sweet crude oil price is corrected upwards amid the weakening of the US dollar. Today in the United States will be published important statistics on oil inventories (14:30 GMT). Increasing reserves will lead to the resumption of the negative dynamics. It is worth noting that despite the reduction in the volume of oil production in the United States, Iran and Libya plan to continue to increase the volume of supply to the market, and the meeting of major oil producers in Qatar on April 17 will not have a real impact on the situation with excess of supply on the market. We forecast a drop in prices in the near future and medium term, but in the second half of the year the situation may change.