30.05.2016 - Gold continued to decline

The price of gold continued its confident downward movement against the strengthening of the US dollar amid the publication of the strong data on US GDP, which growth according to preliminary data was 0.8% in Q1, against forecasted increase by 0.7%. In addition, the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen strengthened investor confidence in the Fed raising interest rates this summer, which is negative for gold, which becomes less attractive compared with the assets that generate interest income. Today, in the US is holiday and activity will be reduced. Tomorrow we should pay attention to data on personal income and consumer spending in the United States. It is worth noting that after a strong decline to the important level of 1200 dollars per troy ounce, there is a possibility of price correction, but in spite of this, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate around the psychologically important level of 50 dollars per barrel. Investors will not rush with active moves until the OPEC meeting on June 2 where can be taken steps to reduce the oversupply of oil on the market. According to our forecasts, the consensus among OPEC countries in the near future is unlikely due to the expected increase in oil production in Iran, which will contribute to similar steps by other members of the cartel. The impact of supply disruptions from Canada, Nigeria and Libya reduced. The political crisis in Venezuela is likely to continue, which may worsen the situation with the supply of oil. We forecast a drop in oil prices in the near future, with the potential of reduction by 15-20%.

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