30.05.2016 - The dollar rose after the speech of Yellen
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the US dollar, which has been associated with the publication of a strong data on US GDP growth in the 1st quarter of this year, and the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen. Thus, the US economy according to the preliminary report, expanded by 0.8% in the first three months of this year, which was 0.1% more than analysts' expectations. Janet Yellen said in a statement about approximation to full employment in the labor market and taking into account the inflation rate makes the increase in Fed interest rates appropriate. Therefore, the likelihood of the Fed interest rates hike increased to 60% in July. Today, the in the US is a holiday and the dynamics of trading tomorrow will affect news on the labor market and the consumer price index in the euro area, as well as personal spending and income of consumers in the US. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, and in the near future is probable the continued decline.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the strengthening of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the desire of investors to fix positions ahead of the long weekend. It is worth noting that today, in the UK is a day off. This week the price dynamics will depend more on the movement of the US dollar and the euro, as well as investors' expectations regarding the results of the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. A more likely scenario is the refusal of voters from the exit of the country from the EU, which will lead to a strong growth of the British pound after the referendum. The volatility in the coming weeks will remain high.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fell against the background of the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the coming months. It should be noted that on Friday, a report was published on the core consumer price index in Japan, which fell by 0.3% for the year, compared with a forecasted decline of 0.4%. This fact will encourage the Bank of Japan to take additional stimulus measures at a meeting on June 15-16. Today was published the news on reducing retail sales in Japan by 0.8% for the year against the forecast of decline by 1.2%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on unemployment, household spending and industrial production in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline against the backdrop of the growth of the US currency. The main factor other than the US dollar in the near future will be the dynamics of prices for commodities, which is the main export group for the country. Investors are waiting for the publication of the report on GDP in Australia on Wednesday, but tomorrow is also worth paying attention to the data on the housing market and the balance of payments of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has continued to gradually decline against the backdrop of the US dollar growth. The dynamics of trading this week will affect data on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, which will be published tomorrow, as well as news from Australia and the USA. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the correction after the recent fall.