30.05.2016 - US investors are resting today
US stock indices showed positive dynamics after was published preliminary data on GDP growth in the 1st quarter, which has been improved to 0.8%, against the previous estimate of 0.7%. We recall that in the 4th quarter of last year, the world's largest economy expanded by 1.4%. In addition, it is worth noting the speech of the Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen, after which the probability of raising interest rates in the US rose to 30% in June and 60% in July, according to the CME. Tightening of monetary policy is negative for the stock market, but on the other hand the reason for this step of the Fed is the improving macroeconomic indicators in the country. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the data on personal income and consumer spending. We expect this positive momentum shift to the negative in the near future, but do not rule out re-testing all-time highs.
European stocks today show little change. The investors are in no hurry to accumulate positions in connection with the holiday in the United Kingdom and the United States. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect unemployment data and a preliminary report on inflation in the euro area, as well as the retail sales in Germany. The focus is still of expectations of results of the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the near future dynamics of trading in Europe will strongly depend on the situation on the US market, as well as the dynamics of oil prices and other commodities.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region mainly finished the trading session around the previous closing levels. The exception was the Japanese market that has grown against the backdrop of the fall of the yen, which supported the shares of exporters. Support for the Chinese market became speculations about further easing of monetary policy in China, which will support the growth of stock indices. On the gold stocks in Australia continues to press confident price drop of the precious metal. Our medium-term outlook for markets in the region is positive, but the risk of a downward correction remains high in the coming days.