30.06.2015 - ​The price of euro regained positions

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro after yesterday's opening gap down on the background of the failure of negotiations on reforms in Greece, renewed growth and closed the gap on hopes that at the referendum on July 5 population of Greece will vote for the adoption of austerity measures to avoid default and the staying of the country in the Eurozone. In addition, the Swiss National Bank has bought a significant amount of euros. Today, the course of trading will be affected by data on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), the consumer price index and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (09:00 GMT). In the United States will be published data on Chicago’s manufacturing PMI (13:45 GMT) and the index of US consumer confidence from the Conference Board (14:00 GMT). This week's price volatility will be high. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to consolidate around the level of 1.57. Investors did not rush to open new positions due to uncertainty about the Greek crisis and the anticipation of important statistics today. Thus, the activity of investors today will grow in connection with the publication of the final report on GDP growth in the UK, business investment and the balance of payments (8:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of yen has stabilized after the strong growth yesterday amid growing demand for defensive assets, which was caused by the failure of negotiations with creditors of Greece. The growth of the yen was also supported by the strong data on retail sales, which in May rose by 3.0%, vs. expected 2.2%. On the other hand, the industrial production in the country fell in May by 2.2%, which is 1.4% worse than analysts' expectations. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by data on the manufacturing PMI in the country. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative, but we see signals that point to a possible increase in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar yesterday regained some lost ground due to technical factors, as well as on the background of correction on commodity markets. Today, the price decline has resumed after the release of statistics on sales of new homes in Australia, which fell by 2.3% in May, against growth of 0.6% in April. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the data on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. In case of deterioration of indicators, the price can be reduced. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after a slight correction has resumed the downward movement and is trying to overcome local minimums. At the moment, we see potential for further decline within the fall, but the expectation of further monetary easing and low export prices continue to put pressure on quotations of the New Zealand currency. The increase in the near future is possible only within the correction. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.

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