30.06.2016 - On the market remains the uncertainty
American stock indexes showed strong growth yesterday on continued buying stocks that have fallen in price after a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU. It is worth noting that personal consumer spending rose by 0.4% in May, indicating a steady improvement in consumer sentiment in the country. In addition, the rise in oil prices caused by the decline in US oil inventories by 4.1 million barrels, has led to an increase in the value of shares of the energy sector. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT). Volatility may rise after the speech by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard (17:30 GMT), in which he will assess the likely impact of the UK exit from the EU on the American economy. Our forecast for the US market in the near future remains negative.
European stock markets are still under pressure of the recent referendum in the UK, at which supported the idea of the country's exit from the EU. This fact will lead to negative consequences for the UK and EU and will slow their economic growth. Support for the German market today was the news on the growth of retail sales in the country by 0.9% vs. expected 0.7%. Today is also worth paying attention to statistics on the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT), as well as data on business investment, balance of payments and GDP growth in the UK (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the negative impact of the UK exit from the EU.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region generally showed minimal change today after strongly declined earlier amid growing concerns about the effects of the UK exit from the EU. It is worth noting that today was published preliminary data on industrial production in Japan, which fell by 2.3% in May against the forecast of decline by only 0.1%. Tomorrow, volatility is likely to grow after the publication of reports on unemployment, CPI and household spending in Japan, as well as the manufacturing PMI in China and Japan. The probability of a downward price movement in the near future remains high and the volatility will likely be increased.