30.07.2015 - The Fed has not clarified the situation regarding the timing of rising interest rates
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a strong increase in volatility yesterday on the Fed's statement on monetary policy in which investors did not find new information on the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Investors expect that the regulator will decide to raise interest rates at the next meeting of the Fed, which will lead to an increase in the dollar against the euro. Today, volatility also will be high due to the release of a large number of important macroeconomic data among which the data on GDP growth in Spain (07:00 GMT), the change in the number of jobs in Germany (7:55 GMT), the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States and central news of the day will be the release of statistics for US GDP growth for the second quarter (12:30 GMT). We forecast a decline in euro price in the medium term.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound, after strong growth in previous days started to adjust downward. Support for the British currency was the data on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending, which in June rose by 2 thousand to 67 thousand. At the same time, the balance of retail sales in the country fell to 21, down 9 below expectations. Today, the dynamics will depend on the statistics from the US and the Eurozone. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell after the Fed statement, and the fall has stopped only after the publication of statistics on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which in June rose by 0.8%, which is two times better than analysts' forecasts. We recall that in May the index fell by 2.1%. Tomorrow will be published important statistics on household expenditure, unemployment and consumer price index in Japan, but high volatility is predicted today after the publication of data on US GDP growth. We expect a fall in the price of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell against the strengthening of the US dollar and the general negative attitude of investors to the Australian currency. The negative impact on the course of trading today will have data on reduction the number of permits issued for construction of new homes in Australia, which fell by 8.2%, compared with an expected decline of only 0.8%. Today, the dynamics will depend on the data on the growth of US GDP. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar was not able to continue the growth and decline has resumed. Tomorrow will be published statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand. In general, we see no reason to change the negative trend of the New Zealand dollar in relation to the expectation of easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and lower prices for dairy products, which is the main export commodity. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.