30.08.2016 - Investors remain cautious
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued its gradual decline against the background of speculation about the possible of the Fed raising interest rates in September. Yesterday was published important data on personal spending of consumers, which rose in July by 0.3%. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the index house prices in 20 major US cities S&P/Case-Shiller (13:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). The main event of the week will be the publication of the labor market report on Friday, which will have a key influence on the decision of the Fed on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decrease in prices in the near future against the background of the difference between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to decline against the US dollar due to the overall negative attitude of investors to the British currency after the results of the referendum according to which the United Kingdom will leave the EU. In addition, confidence in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year increased after Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. A slight impact on the course of trading today may have news of lending in the country (08:30 GMT). We forecast a drop in the British pound in the medium term and the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen stabilized after the recent decline against the US dollar caused by the speeches of heads of the central banks in the US and Japan, which have resulted in increased expectations for further monetary policy divergence between the two countries. Today was published statistics from Japan that was better than expected. Thus, the unemployment rate fell to 3.0%, against 3.1% earlier, while retail sales declined by only 0.2% in July, compared with the previous year, which is significantly better than the forecasted decline by 0.9%. We expect a further decline of the yen and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected upwards after the recent sharp decline. This movement is caused by fixing positions and a strong statistics on the number of new construction permits in Australia, which increased by 11.3% in July, against a decline of 4.7% in the previous month. The dynamics of prices in the near future will depend on the movement of the US dollar and the situation on the commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and after the current correction, the fall is likely to resume.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rebounded upwards after a strong decline and in the near future may continue the correction. It should be noted that taking into account expectations of further reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and their increase in the United States. Tomorrow the dynamics of trading will affect news on the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand. We expect the price decline in the near future and medium term.