30.08.2016 - The fall of oil may continue after the current consolidation

The price of gold continues to consolidate after the recent decline caused by hawkish rhetoric by the Fed chief, which points to the possibility of higher interest rates in the US in September. The probability of such a move is still low, but investors this week will not rush to accumulate positions before the publication of statistics on the labor market in America on Friday. Strong indicators will lead to an increase in the probability of monetary policy tightening, which makes gold less attractive compared with the assets that generate interest income. Support for gold until the end of the year may be an increase in demand for jewelry in India and China because of the festive period and fall on stock markets, causing increased interest in defensive assets.

The price Light Sweet crude oil cannot decide with the direction after could not continue to grow inside the rising channel. It should be noted that the strengthening of the dollar negatively affects the price of oil. Investors are waiting for the publication of a report on US oil inventories on Wednesday. Speculation about a possible coordination of measures between major oil producers including Russia and OPEC countries will maintain volatility at a high level in September. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the excess of oil supply in the market, increasing drilling activity in the US and rising inventories in the United States and the world.

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