30.09.2014 - In Japan, was published contradictory data
The price of euro continues to consolidate near the level of 1.27 against the background of a lack of important macro in the euro area and expectations of the ECB statement after the interest rate decision on Thursday. Data from the United States, where private consumer spending rose by 0.5%, while personal income by 0.3%which agreed with analysts' forecasts, had almost no impact on the dynamics of prices. Today we should pay attention to unemployment and the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT). The dollar will be affected by the news on the house price index in the 20 largest cities in the USA (13:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro and are waiting for the ECB decision on monetary policy on Thursday and data on the labor market in the United States on Friday.
The price of the British pound stabilized above 1.62 and volatility remains low. Decrease in quotations yesterday was caused by the statistics on approved mortgages in the UK. Thus, the figure dropped to 64 thousand, that is worse than pre-crisis level of 90 thousand and 76 thousand in January . Analysts predicted that the figure will be 66 thousand. Today we expect increased volatility due to the release of data on GDP growth, business investment and the balance of payments of the country for the second quarter of 2014. We forecast the price growth of the British pound in the medium term.
The Japanese yen rose slightly on the background of contradictory statistics for August, which was published today. Thus, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to 3.5%, household spending fell by 4.7%, compared with an expected decline of 3.5%, retail sales rose by 1.2%, which is 3 times better than expected, while industrial production fell by 1.5% against the expected growth of 0.2%. Japan's finance minister declared his readiness to take measures to support demand due to the increase of the sales tax. In addition, investors are monitoring the situation with the protests in Hong Kong. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards despite the release of data on reduction of the manufacturing PMI from HSBC in China to 50.2, compared with an expected 50.5. In addition, crediting of the private sector rose by 0.4%, which is 0.2% less than the expected rate. Low iron ore prices continue to negatively affect the mood of investors regarding the Australian dollar. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar, and despite the high probability of correction recommend holding short positions.
After a long decline, the price of New Zealand dollar today showed corrective growth, despite the negative statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand, which fell to 13.4 in August compared with the previous rate of 24.4. Given the oversold currency of New Zealand, there is a great likelihood of continued upward price correction, but there are no reasons for the change of the trend at the moment. We look forward to continuing the downward price movement and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.