30.09.2015 - The Japanese yen continues to consolidate
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate, despite yesterday's publication of strong data from the US. Thus, the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board rose unexpectedly to 103.0 in September vs. anticipated 96.2. The index of house prices in 20 largest cities S&P/Case-Shiller in July increased by 5.0% compared to the same period last year, which was 0.1% below the forecast. Today will be published important statistics on the unemployment rate and the consumer price index in the euro area (09:00 GMT). Investors are waiting for statistics on the US labor market on Friday, and the growth of the dollar is constrained by concerns about the slowing global economy. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued its gradual decline despite the publication of strong statistics on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending in August, which has grown to 71 thousand against 69 thousand in the previous month. At the same time, the balance of retail sales in September rose to 49, compared with an expected growth up to 29. Today will be published important statistics on business investment, balance of payments and GDP growth in the UK in the second quarter, that will lead to an increase in volatility. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen was supported by the demand for defensive assets, which was due to a fall on the world markets and instability in China. Despite this, the price continues to consolidate around the previous levels, which is associated with a weak statistics on retail sales which rose in August only by 0.8% compared with the same period last year, against an expected increase of 1.2%, and the volume industrial production, which fell in August by 0.5%, which was significantly worse than the forecast growth of 1.1%. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the manufacturing PMI in China and Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth, despite the publication of weak statistics on the number of permits issued for new construction in Australia, which in August fell by 6.9% against an expected decline of 1.8%. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's statistics on manufacturing PMI in Australia and China. The possibility of further reduction in interest rates, together with the low prices of exports are the main factors that put pressure on the Australian currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar was not able to continue to decline and started to correct upwards. Improvement of the index of business confidence in New Zealand in August to -18.9 vs. predicted -29.1 previously was the reason for the upward movement of prices. Consolidation of quotes is likely to continue around current levels, then, according to our estimates the decline will be resumed in connection with the forecast of lower interest rates in the country and the deterioration of the trade balance. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.