30.09.2016 - On the currency market continues consolidation before the strong movement
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to consolidate near the level of 1.1200, despite the publication of important statistics and statements by Fed officials, who were not able to clarify the prospects of higher interest rates this year. The final report on the GDP growth of the US economy showed expansion by 1.4% vs. predicted 1.3%, while the number of initial unemployment claims totaled 254 thousand, compared to the expected 260 thousand. Today, in the focus will be data on retail sales in Germany (06:00 GMT), the consumer price index and unemployment in the euro area (09:00 GMT), as well as statistics on personal income and consumer spending in the US (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound was unable to continue corrective gains and resumed decline in the local downtrend channel. Today will be published important data on business investment, balance of payments and GDP growth in the UK (08:30 GMT), which will lead to an increase in the price volatility. Despite the recent improvement in the country's macroeconomic data, investors fear the negative consequences of the UK’s exit from the European Union. In this context, our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decrease in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed a slight rise in volatility, but could not radically change the direction of movement. So, the reason for the growth of investment activity has become contradictory statistics, according to which household spending fell by 4.6% over the year, core consumer price index in Japan declined to -0.5%, which is 0.1% below the forecast, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 3.1%, and industrial production rose unexpectedly by 1.5% in August compared with an expected increase of 0.5%. According to our estimates, after a long consolidation quotes will show strong growth of volatility.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a decrease, which was caused by the desire to fix the positions before the weekend, as well as in connection with the strong growth earlier. It should be noted that the pressure on the Australian currency had a slight decrease in the price of oil. Positive statistics on the increase in sales of new homes by 6.1% in August, after declining by 9.7% in the previous month was not able to influence the course of trading. According to our estimates, the growth potential in the near future is low, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a slight increase, and at the moment continues to consolidate. The impulse for growth has become a strong growth of the index of confidence in the business community of New Zealand, which was 27.9 in August, against 15.5 in the previous period. It is worth noting that after a long consolidation, and given the reduction in the amplitude of price fluctuations, we expect a strong price movement in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for a decline in the near future.