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- 30.09.2016 - The situation on the stock markets is deteriorating
30.09.2016 - The situation on the stock markets is deteriorating
American stock indexes showed a decline on a background of lack of drivers for further increase of price, despite the rise in oil prices and positive statistics on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter by 1.4%, vs. expected 1.3%. Negative for the market was the fall in the price of the largest company in the world by market capitalization - Apple. Today, investor sentiment will affect the data on personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence (14:00 GMT). According to our estimates, the continued growth and renewal of historic highs in the near future is unlikely, and we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the US market.
The main European stock indices show a decline amid concerns about the banking sector in the region against the background of problems in the Deutsche Bank, a downward correction in oil prices and the downward influence of the United States. Retail sales in Germany fell by 0.4% in August, against the forecast of decline by 0.2% and growth of 0.5% in the previous period. The growth of consumer inflation in the euro area accelerated to 0.4%, in line with expectations, while the unemployment rate was 10.1% versus an expected decline to 10.0%. Positive for the UK market was the news about the growth of GDP by 0.7% in the second quarter, which is 0.1% more than the forecast and increase business investment by 1.0% in the same period against the expected growth of 0.5 %. On Monday, the dynamics will affect the news on economic activity in the euro area and the United Kingdom. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains negative.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed different dynamics due to positive data from China's manufacturing PMI from Caixin, which totaled 50.1 as expected, but was above the level of 50.0 that indicates expansion in the sector. In Japan were published an important statistics on unemployment that rose to 3.1%, the base consumer price index, which fell to -0.5% in August compared with the previous year. Household spending also fell sharply by 4.6%, against an expected decline of 2.1%. The only positive news were on the growth of industrial production by 1.5% against the expected 0.5%. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to expected pressure from the US and Europe.