30.10.2015 - The US economy grew by 1.5% in the third quarter
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose yesterday on the background of weak statistics on the US GDP growth in the third quarter, which according to preliminary data, totaled 1.5%, which was 0.1% worse than analysts' forecasts. In the previous period, the economy expanded by 3.9%. It is worth noting that the main pressure on the index had a decrease of inventories, but sales rose by 3.0%, which indicates the strength of the economy. Today, volatility will remain high, and we should pay attention to the data on Spain's GDP in Q3 (08:00 GMT), the consumer price index and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone (10:00 GMT), personal income and consumer spending in the US (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we look forward to the resumption of the negative dynamics after the current correction.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose yesterday against the weakening of the US dollar after the fall caused by ambiguous statistics on lending in the UK, where the volume of mortgage approvals in September was 69 thousand, which is 2 thousand less than analysts' expectations. At the same time the volume of loans to individuals totaled 4.9 billion vs. expected 4.4 billion. Today, the dynamics of the price of the British pound will depend on external factors, and on Monday we should pay attention to the manufacturing PMI. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen showed extremely high volatility yesterday after the publication of GDP data in the United States today after the statement of the Bank of Japan in which some experts expect to hear about additional measures to stimulate inflation in the country. As a result, the Bank of Japan has left monetary policy settings unchanged and amount of asset purchases at 80 trillion yen a year. It is worth noting that the basic consumer price inflation rose to 0.9%, which was the highest value since 1994 and indicates the success of the soft monetary policy in the country. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's press conference, of the head of the Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda, on which he can tell about the plans regarding the control of monetary policy in the country. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after the recent decline in the near future we may see a correction. Investors are currently not in a hurry to open new positions in the expectation of important statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Australia and China, which will affect the course of trading on Monday. At the moment, growth is possible only within correction and we expect falling prices in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the Zealand Dollar corrected upwards against the weakening US dollar, as well as the positive statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand, which rose to 10.5 in September versus -18.9 in August. Weak inflation at 0.4% stimulates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for the further easing of monetary policy, but the recovery in prices for dairy products in the last week supported the optimism of investors. We forecast a drop in prices in the near future and in the medium term and recommend to accumulate short positions on the New Zealand dollar.