30.11.2015 - American investors will return to the market after the holidays
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to gradually decline after weak activity of investors in the second half of last week, which was due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. It is worth noting that the main reason for the price decline is the expected easing of monetary policy after the ECB meeting on 3 December and its tightening in the US after the Fed's meeting on 15-16 December. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on retail sales in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the manufacturing PMI in Chicago, but investors will not rush to open positions before a number of important events that will take place this week. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro with the potential of fall to 1,00-1,02 in the coming months.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued negative trend against the background of weakening of the US dollar and the euro. The data on GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter fell short of analysts' expectations and showed an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous quarter. Today, investor sentiment will be influenced by data on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending and net volume of new loans issued to individuals (09:30 GMT). Investors are waiting for tomorrow's statement of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the Bank of England report on financial stability and stress test results. We expect falling prices in the medium term, but at any moment we can see a sharp upward movement of prices.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of yen decline has stopped today, despite the expected rise in the US dollar. Support for the Japanese currency has become the strong data on retail sales in the country, which grew over the year by 1.8%, which is twice more than the analysts' forecasts. At the same time, industrial production rose in October by 1.4%, which is 0.3% better than the previous figure but 0.5% below expectations. Tomorrow, the support for the Japanese currency may be positive statistics on the manufacturing PMI in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, despite the improvement in the macroeconomic indicators in the country.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has slowed the fall against the publication of inflation report from the University of Melbourne, according to which, the index in November rose by 0.1% and to 1.8% for the year, which is below the target range of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2-3%. Tomorrow will be published a number of important reports including manufacturing PMI in Australia and China, data on the balance of payments and construction in Australia, as well as a statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Low commodity prices and the rise of the US dollar still have a negative impact on the prospects for the Australian currency.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose today after the publication of the report on the index of business confidence in New Zealand to a maximum of 6 months to 14.6, against 10.5 in the previous period. It should be noted that this fact points to the growth of investment, but in the dairy sector, which is a key export in the country, we see the saving of negative trends. We expect the decline in prices in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.