30.11.2015 - The volatility this week will be high
American stock indexes showed neutral dynamics during short trading session on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the assessment of sales volume during the "Black Friday." We recall that November and December are the most important months for retailers who receive 20-40% of the revenues for the period. This week will be full of important news and volatility will be increased. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the news on Chicago’s manufacturing PMI for November (14:45 GMT), and pending sales in the US housing market (15:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but growth potential has reduced.
European stock indexes showed a slight decline at the end of last week and the growth on the market was restrained by weak data from China, where corporate profits continued to decline. It is worth noting that the UK's GDP growth was 0.5% in the third quarter compared with the previous period. GDP growth for the year slowed to 2.3% in the last quarter from 2.4% in the second quarter. Today, we should pay attention to the statistics on retail sales in Germany (07:00 GMT). Investors will not hurry with actions until the ECB's statement on monetary policy, which will be published on Thursday. Thus, the regulator may increase the quantitative easing program by 15 billion euros to 75 billion monthly, or lower interest rates on deposits by 0.10% to -0.30%. We expect growth on the European markets in the medium term due to the stimulus measures in the euro area.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are down on weak statistics from China, according to which the profits of industrial companies in the country fell by 4.6% in October and totaled 4.87 trillion yuan. In addition, the Chinese regulator has asked the investment companies to reduce financing transactions using borrowed funds. Today in Japan, was published statistics on the growth of retail sales by 1.8% vs. anticipated 0.9%, while industrial output increased by 1.4% in October, which is 0.5% worse than expected. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect manufacturing PMI data for China, Japan and Australia. We also should pay attention to the statement by the RBA. The current decline may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.