30.12.2015 - Trading volumes fell dramatically
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed a sharp decline after a prolonged consolidation. The reason for the sharp decline was low trading volumes due to the holiday season on the market. Support for the dollar became the data on the index of US consumer confidence, which rose to 96.5, against the forecast of 93.9. Today, the course of trading may significantly affect the news on the money supply M3 in the euro area (09:00 GMT), and pending sales in the secondary real estate market in the US (15:00 GMT). Tomorrow in many countries is a day off and activity will be minimal. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected upwards after a strong decline yesterday during which the price has reached its lowest level in 8.5 months. Low trading volumes, decline of the euro and the overall negative trend has led to the fall of the British currency. Rising interest rates of the Bank of England will take place not earlier than in the second half of 2016, which will negatively affect investors' expectations. At the same time, a key issue for the UK will be a referendum on the saving of the country within the European Union, the exit from which will be negatively displayed on the quotes and this fear may lead to a drop in rates to 1.40 in the first half of next year. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of yen has stabilized after strengthening in the previous week. According to our estimates after the current correction, the fall of the yen against the US dollar will resume and now we are waiting for the signal for the opening short positions on the yen. Activity in the coming days will be minimal due to the shortened trading week. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the backdrop of the correction in oil prices, which traditionally has a positive effect on commodity currencies. Investor activity remained low due to the holiday period and the shortened trading week. The potential for further growth of the Australian currency is limited, and given the low commodity prices and the expected strengthening of the US dollar. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics after the holidays.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the strong growth came close to an important level of 0.89, but given the lack of new drivers for growth, the intention of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower interest rates and the projected strengthening of the US dollar, we keep a negative medium-term outlook. At the moment, there is a good opportunity for the sale of the New Zealand currency with a short stop and the potential reduction up to 0.66 and 0.62.